“I show you the best price on the board, or your book’s if you picked one.”
How I make your picks
6 steps from the books’ prices to a pick you can read
Step 1 of 6
First, I read the books
I read the prices from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars and more. Every book’s prices are re-captured at least every 30 minutes, and every 5 minutes on game evenings. I keep the props priced −300 to +600, so the board is one you can bet.
Live odds scan
ExampleSample batter — Over 1.5 Total Bases
All 6 steps on one page
1. First, I read the books
I read the prices from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars and more. Every book’s prices are re-captured at least every 30 minutes, and every 5 minutes on game evenings. I keep the props priced −300 to +600, so the board is one you can bet.
2. Then I read his games and tonight’s matchup
Every prop starts from the player’s own game log. Then tonight: who he faces, the park, the weather, the umpire, rest — wherever we’ve measured what each one is worth.
3. I play it out 10,000 times
Monte Carlo: every player prop is played out 10,000 times from his own games, adjusted for tonight’s matchup. Moneylines come from our game model instead.
4. I check it against our own record
Every pick we show is graded against the box score, and that record keeps tuning our number. Our number is built from our own data first; on some markets the books’ price is then weighed in as one more input.
5. I rank the whole board
LOCK is the top quarter of every priced leg on the board, ranked by our number — on NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB, the ones our number says pay at their price. EDGE is the next group down: the legs ranked below LOCK, to the top half of the board — on NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB, the ones our number says pay at their price. An EDGE parlay is built from that group alone — none of LOCK’s legs, so a bigger payout. Parlay My Way builds from the top 60% of that ranking, from the top down, to exactly the number of legs you ask for. On NBA, NHL and MLB the ranking is of the legs priced −200 or longer, so no group takes a heavier favorite. On NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB, LOCK and EDGE take only a leg whose price pays our number: what it returns if it hits, times how often we say it hits, is more than the stake.
6. Here’s your pick
The card shows our number, the price beside it and the time it was priced. Add it to your slip, or send the parlay to your book.
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